(01-03-2021 08:30 PM)Tad Carlucci Wrote: Which is the 9th trait?
Remember that it most definitely __is__ impossible to get many trait values with a Confetti fur.
It is impossible, for instance, to cross-breed a trait from a non-Confetti onto a Confetti. So you have to have it on a Confetti (shown or hidden) to get it to pop out. That means it has to have been available (and actually hidden) in your Confetti starters. So any trait which is not available to a Confetti Starter is impossible for ANY Confetti to have.
Some traits can be very easily discarded and become impossible in your lines. Take large/small pupil size. 100% of all Confetti starters show Large. On average 50% should hide Small. So, on average, only about 1-in-16 2nd generation Confetti will show (and hide), I'd have to work the math again, but I think I worked it out that the odds were vanishingly close to unity (1:1) that Small pupil would be eliminated. That's not _exactly_ zero, but it's a good approximation.
The OP was about 15 offspring and no Confetti at all. And feeling this should be impossible.
I think I did the math on that a very long time ago and came out to something around 1-in-8 odds that a given pair would produce no Confetti at all. IIRC it was a bit of 50% odds that you'd get one-or-more offspring and something like 1-in4 that you'd get 2. The "perfect" goal for Confetti would be exactly one offspring per parent. To get that, since some might have 2 or even 3 (15 actually _IS_ possible) there would need to be some parents who produce no Confetti offspring at all.
This is the one place where KittyCatS can make (tiny) adjustments. If, over the years, it's turned out to be slightly less than one-Confetti-child per parent, they might bump the odds up a teensy-weensy bit. Conversely if there's been a bit more than 1-per, they might take it down a tiny bit.
At one point, I modelled a feedback loop which would automate the birth-rate adjustment. Unfortunately, I forgot one thing: that makes a feedback loop for a quadratic and THAT is the very definition of the Mandlebrot Set, and the basis of Chaos Theory. So, of course, it seemed to work fine for thousands of generations with tiny adjustments. But, depending upon the exact conditions (ie., all players be perfect is one condition) whether the system is stable or unstable is unknowable until it actually crashes (nobody left), explodes (insanely large populations keep growing), or manages to become stable. The solution: no feedback. Sigh.
Thanks for the input Tad, this is greatly appreciated.
I have been breeding confettis for years, and the 9th trait always comes down to the eye (mysterious/small). I always breed my confettis to a confetti color. I haven't even used a cocoberry for years. If I count a trait as hidden, the hidden trait is always showing on a parent. I usually breed within my own families and occasionally trade for a cat to up trait a line, or if I am getting the wrong gender consistently and about to lose a line. I watch & track all nine traits very closely on all these lines. To breed a pair of confetti furs (Cherryberry) 15 times and not get a color out of even one breeding means there is not one confetti per parent. This has happened to me multiple times, not just with these Cherryberries. It happened with my 8 traited Blueberries, and a pair of another color as well. I currently have my Pinkberries at 8T too, and find the same pattern unfolding.
Based on years of data in my own lines, I would say the odds of getting a color out of two confetti colors outside an established Familia line is quite low. I understand making a line challenging, I have stuck with confettis much longer than most breeders do. But the odds on successfully breeding a 9T confetti is beyond challenging, it is disheartening. They should come with a warning label lol. It discourages confetti breeders from buying and trading outside of their own lines. These highly discouraging odds not only make it hard to breed confettis, but also to sell them.
I am so frustrated with Confettis I wish I was seeing Red!
